Instead of trying to predict "Black Swan" events such as coups or crises, forecasters should look at how political systems handle disorder.
Instead of trying to predict "Black Swan" events such as coups or crises, forecasters should look at how political systems handle disorder. The best indicator of a country's future trajectory is not a lengthy past stability, but recent moderate volatility.
The Calm Before the Storm: Why Volatility Signals Stability and Vice Versa (Unabridged) is available as an audiobook on Apple Books. We haven't confirmed it on Spotify yet — but you can still search there below.
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